Exposing GERS figures - proof that Scotland will be far better off as an independent state


UK GERS figures claim that Scottish spending leaves the Scottish economy with a £13.4 billion blackhole.

The Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland figures claim £74 billion is spent either in Scotland, or a percentage share of UK wide spending on Scotland's behalf.

Now let's imagine for a second that the GERS figures are completely correct and that all of the UK wide spending on Scotland's behalf actually benefits Scotland (questionable I know but stick with me here.)

savings after Scottish independence

Here is a possible list of savings that could be made to the Scottish budget after independence that would offset this so called "Scottish black hole."

Defence saving= £3.8 billion (Current contribution £4.8b)
(Scotland pays 10% towards total UK defence spending which comes to an outrageous figure. To compare, Ireland spends a total of £800 million.)

Transport saving = £2.2 billion (current contribution - £3.1b)
(An independent Scotland wouldn't spend anywhere near this amount on transport costs. Ireland spends less than a billion for comparisons sake. For arguments sake let's say Scotland spends £1 billion on transport)

Public Sector Interest saving = £4.4 billion (Current contribution £5.4b)
(An independent Scotland won't have a deficit. But even if Scotland did agree to pay a nominal interest fee towards their previous share of national debt, it wouldn't come to anywhere near this figure. For arguments sake, let's pay them £1 billion a year towards our share of the debt.)

General Government saving = £1.6 billion (Current Contribution £1.6b)

'Other Public Services' saving = £4 billion (Current contribution £11.5b)

Given the fact that we're 8% of the population but they imagine a scenario where Scotland is responsible for 10% of the UK wide cost, it is reasonable to assume that we could make massive savings with Public services costs, especially compared to Irish costs.

Our share of general government costs will be gone, since we'll no longer have to contribute towards running the British Government whatsoever.

So that's savings £16 billion annual savings straight away, on day one of independence.

It is reasonable to also consider that Scotland could make a significant saving on tax administration costs, according to Mirrlees and Beveridge reports.

It is also reasonable to suggest that saving could be made to Scotland's current contribution to borders security, especially in comparison to Irish spending.

There you go, after independence, there is no black hole. Scotland's future is actually brighter as an independent country.

Now of course, we are not taking into account the potential tourism boom after an independent Scotland. We are also not taking into account the potential for multi national companies to move to Scotland, providing extra billions to the economy.

GERS figures do not take into account for example, that 16 of the top 20 companies in Ireland are US multinational companies that are only there because as an independent state, Ireland is allowed to offer competitive corporation tax deals to attract these companies to come to their country.

Scotland could benefit to the tune of tens of billions of pounds by having control over corporation tax rates.

So not only is there not a black hole - Scotland's economic capabilities are actually being strangled while it remains a third state of the United Kingdom.

Financial figures source: https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/current_spending

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