Independence has now become the safe option

Scottish independence

In the news today, we have learned that Brexit could send Scotland into a deep recession according to a leading economist.  It is now quite clear that if Scotland remains a part of the United Kingdom, we are choosing chaos, blunder and uncertainty.

Mark Gregory, from accountancy company EY has warned that economic growth will begin to slow down next year, and has warned that depending on how Brexit plays out - that Scotland could face falling into a deep recession.

I'm sure that there are many millions of working class people around the country asking the question, 'can things really get any worse?' And the answer sadly is yes, things can get a lot worse than they are right now.

Make no mistake about it, in the event of a disorderly Brexit, which now appears more likely - house prices will tumble, grocery prices will rise, businesses will close, thousands will lose their jobs and companies will relocate to EU countries.

The austerity measures that have been implemented by the British Government in recent years will seem tame in comparison to what might be just around the corner.

It still amuses me when I hear people ask 'do you think Brexit will actually happen?'

You can't hold a referendum and then not deliver the result.  All or any shred of trust that people still have left in the government would be burned to a cinders if they failed to deliver what the majority of the country voted for.

A referendum is a lot more serious than party policy - the result must be respected and the outcome must be delivered.

At the snap election, about 85% of votes went to parties that promised to deliver the result of the Brexit referendum - an even higher endorsement of Brexit, so the consequences of not delivering that could be disastrous.

In my mind, there are a few possible outcomes in the coming months, and that's either a no deal Brexit, the outside chance of some kind of fudged deal passing through parliament, or an extension of article 50 - either way it's guaranteed that we're in for more economic uncertainty, more austerity and more chaos.

The Norway option is now completely off the table it would appear, as Norwegian politicians suggest that they would veto any UK attempt to rejoin the EFTA.  This option was previously seen as a viable compromise, but it's looking increasingly more unlikely.

In the event that the government collapsed and a general election was called, judging by recent polls, the Tories could probably still be in power afterwards and could even end up with a majority.

Even in the event that Labour got back in, Jeremy Corbyn is quite clear that his first preference is to deliver Brexit, and to do so in such a manner that is the least damaging, but whilst still ending freedom of movement, which means no single market membership.  Leaving the single market is a car crash waiting to happen for the Scottish economy.

Corbyn says he hasn't ruled out a People's Vote - but he knows he could never deliver this.  If he did, he would become the number one enemy of the people England who voted to leave the EU.  Corbyn wouldn't do this for the same reason that May would never re run the referendum - it would be seen as a betrayal of democracy.

Even if there was a 2nd EU referendum, it would still mean many more years of uncertainty and the continued massive damage to the economy that this process has already achieved.  There is also the possibility that we'd get the same result, or still have quite a close result with remain edging a victory, and the country would be more divided than ever before.

There really is no easy way out of the current predicament for the British Government.

Then there's the fact that Scotland voted almost 2 to 1 to remain in the EU.  Support for remaining in the EU has actually increased in Scotland since the EU referendum according to the polls, and it is clear to everyone in Scotland that the will of the Scottish nation has been cast aside, and that whatever England wants, England gets.

The rise of the far right in England led to Brexit, and it was arguably inevitable.  Rather than try to challenge the far right movement - both the Tories and Labour have decided to use it to their electoral advantage.

Both May and Corbyn are heard regularly promising to "end free movement for once and for all" in a bid to appease the rising far right, fascist tendencies of the English electorate.  They have chosen to embrace these fascist tendencies rather than maintain the moral high ground, rather than openly rejecting England's rampant racism - they've used it for political gain.

The rise of the far right in England will of course perhaps lead to even more conservative governments than we have now, and may even lead to a far right fascist government running the UK in the coming years, depending on how Brexit pans out.  There is a fair chance that England will choose to abandon the main parties for a new far right party.

In the midst of England's political identity crisis, Scotland is proving it's worth as a forward thinking, rational, progressive nation, at the forefront of innovation, leading the world with green energy commitments, and proving that we'd have progressive social policies if we had the chance to control our own affairs.

An independent Scotland, being a smaller country would be free to choose the Norway model and join the EFTA, or join the EU as a full member - we'd be able to make that choice for ourselves without having these important constitutional decisions made on our behalf.

It would appear that the UK is heading for many years of economic uncertainty, political chaos and is potentially even heading towards a period of great civil unrest.

Scotland has a get out clause.  If ever there was a time that Scotland should be considering the benefits of choosing a more secure future, by taking control of our own affairs, that time has well and truly arrived.

Paying attention to the news today, we are warned of food and medicine shortages, business closures, job losses, we watch sound bites of a Prime Minister and an opposition leader appeasing far right, racists in England by promising to "end free movement."  What a depressing state of affairs.

Scotland is more progressive, more forward thinking.  Scotland has a finance sector worth over a trillion pounds, North Sea oil and gas reserves worth over a trillion pounds, personal wealth of over a trillion pounds.  Scotland has more tax revenue than Ireland - and Ireland is doing very well, and is projected to achieve 4.8% GDP growth next year!

The question is no longer 'should we take a risk with independence?'

The question is now, 'should we really take the risk of remaining a part of a United Kingdom?'

It's time to make the educated and rational choice to separate ourselves from the chaotic shambles that is the 'union' and for us to finally allow Scotland to join the likes of Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Ireland and to take pride of place on the world stage as a normal, successful independent country.


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